Literature

Numbers Don't Lie

Vaclav Smil · 2000

Lindy Score

4,245·Classic

26 yrs

Age

2

Endorsers

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Why it endured

Vaclav Smil uses 71 data-driven stories to correct misconceptions about energy, technology, transportation, and globalization. Bill Gates's favorite author at his most accessible.

What they're saying

2 people recommend this book

Andrej KarpathyAI researcher & former Tesla AI Director

A quick read whirlwind tour of a number of topics, at a pace of only about 2-3 pages per topic. Some fun notes and examples: - 75% of all births between 2020 - 2070 will be in Africa - vaccinations have an extraordinarily high benefit-cost ratio, an approx. ~44X return on investment - estimated heritability of linespace is only ~15-30% (?) - humans are sweating champions in the animal kingdom, very useful for thermoregulation and endurance even in hot weather - synthesis of ammonia not only averted the Malthusian catastrophe, but also just in time allowed a blockaded Germany to continue manufacturing explosives and prolonged WWI by years. - renewables only provided ~4.5% of electricity in 2017, and electricity is only 27% of global energy consumption ;s - many large uses of fossil fuels have no clear non-carbon alternatives, including long-distance transport (air, water), production of primary iron, cement, synthesis of ammonia, plastics, space heating - no other domesticated land animal can covert feed to meat as efficiently as broilers (chickens raised for meat production), at a feed-to-meat conversion efficiency of ~15% (pork 10%, beef 4%). The lives of these chicken are straight up unethical - they live 7 weeks (normal lifespan is ~8 years), have malformed bodies, spend life in dark confinement. But cost $2.94 / pound of boneless breast, great. - in North America / Europe about 60% of total crop production is for animal feed, not human feed - four pillars of modern civilization, allegedly: ammonia, steel, cement, plastics This is a fun / quick read, though mostly a large collection of mostly disconnected cliff-notes style quick fact summaries that are dense in numbers and comparisons and can become a bit exhausting. Perhaps due to speed, some topics get a somewhat questionable, almost misleading treatment, for example I found the EV and GDP sections mildly annoying. 3/5

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Bill GatesCo-founder of Microsoft

My favorite author’s new book might be his best one yet. Each chapter covers one of 71 facts about the world that help you understand how history ties together. I unabashedly recommend it to anyone who loves learning.

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